I kēia mau lā, ʻo ka hui aʻoaʻo a Fitch - Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), Benchmark Mineral Intelligence i hoʻokuʻu i kahi hōʻike wanana, 2023-2027, ʻo ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki o ka hana ʻana o ka hao hao honua e manaʻo ʻia he 2.3%, I nā makahiki ʻelima i hala (2017-). 2022), ʻo ka helu helu -0.7%.E kōkua kēia i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hana hao hao e 372.8 miliona tonnes i 2027 i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 2022, wahi a ka hōʻike.
I ka manawa like, e hoʻonui hou ʻia ka wikiwiki o ka hana ʻana i ka hao hao honua.
Ua hōʻike ʻia ka hōʻike e hiki mai ana ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka hao hao honua e hiki mai ana mai Brazil a me Australia.I kēia manawa, ua hōʻike ʻo Vale i kahi hoʻolālā hoʻonui ikaika i ka honua o waho.Ma ka manawa like, hoʻolālā pū ʻo BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, FMG e hoʻolilo i nā hana hoʻonui hou.ʻO nā laʻana, ʻo ia ka Iron Bridge, e alualu ʻia nei e FMG, a me Gudai Darri, e alualu ʻia nei e Rio Tinto.
Ua ʻōlelo ka hōʻike, i loko o ʻekolu a ʻehā makahiki e hiki mai ana, e piʻi aʻe ka hana ʻana o ka hao o Kina.I kēia manawa, ke hoʻāʻo nei ʻo Kina e hoʻonui i ke kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻokō ponoʻī a wehe mālie iā ia iho mai ka hilinaʻi ʻana i nā mines Australia.ʻO ka hoʻomohala ikaika ʻana o ka "pola kumu kumu" ua hoʻoikaika i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hana ʻana o nā ʻoihana mining Kina, a ua wikiwiki hoʻi i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mines kaulike ma waho e nā hui Kina e like me Baowu, e like me ka papahana Xipo o Kina Baowu a me Rio Tinto.Manaʻo ka hōʻike i nā hui ʻo Kina e hoʻokumu i ka hoʻopukapuka ʻana i nā mines hao hao ma waho, e like me ka lua nui ʻo Simandou.
Ua wānana pū ka hōʻike mai 2027 a 2032, ʻo ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki o ka hana ʻana o ka hao hao honua e manaʻo ʻia he -0.1%.Wahi a ka hōʻike, hiki ke hoʻemi ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka ulu ʻana ma muli o ka pani ʻana o nā mines liʻiliʻi a hoʻohaʻahaʻa i nā kumukūʻai hao hao e hoʻemi ai nā miners nui i ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā papahana hou.
Wahi a ka hōʻike, mai 2023 a 2027, e ulu ana ka hana hao hao o Australia ma ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki he 0.2%.Ua hōʻike ʻia ʻo ka awelika o ka hana ʻana o ka hao hao ma Australia he $30 / ton, West Africa he $40 / ton ~ $50 / ton, a ʻo Kina he $90 / ton.No ka mea, aia ʻo Australia i ka lalo o ke kumukūʻai o ka hao hao honua, manaʻo ʻia e hāʻawi i kahi pale olakino e kūʻē i ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai hao hao honua i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana.
Hoʻomaka hou ka hana ʻana o ka hao o Brazil i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana.Wahi a ka hōʻike, ʻo kēia ma muli o ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa o ka hana ʻana a me nā kumukūʻai hana, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mālama ʻana i ka papahana, nā haʻawina waiwai, a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka kaulana o nā mea hana kila Kina.Ua wānana ka hōʻike mai ka makahiki 2023 a hiki i 2027, e ulu aʻe ka hana o ka hao hao o Brazil ma ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki o 3.4%, mai 56.1 miliona tons a i 482.9 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki.Eia naʻe, i ka wā lōʻihi, e lohi ka ulu ʻana o ka hana o ka hao hao ma Brazil, a ʻo ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki i manaʻo ʻia he 1,2% mai 2027 a 2032, a hiki i ka 507,5 miliona tons / makahiki ma 2032.
Eia kekahi, ua hōʻike pū ʻia ka hōʻike e hoʻonui ʻia ka hana ʻana o ka mine Gelado o Vale's Serra Norte mine Gelado i kēia makahiki;Hoʻomaka ka papahana N3 i 2024;Ua hoʻonui ka papahana S11D i ka hana ʻana i nā hapaha mua ʻekolu o ka makahiki kālā, e kōkua ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka hua hao hao e 5.8 pākēneka makahiki i kēlā me kēia makahiki i 66.7m tonnes, me ka manaʻo o ka papahana e hoʻonui i ka hiki ma 30m tonnes i ka makahiki. .